Provincial manufacturers expressed concerns to CME about the shrinking supply of workers with skilled trade and production line expertise.  These concerns stimulated CME to conduct further research and analysis. This indicated a skills gap is developing in Newfoundland and Labrador - one that will grow over the next 10-15 years.  Planning for the future skills gap is critical for the sustainability and growth of Newfoundland and Labrador’s manufacturing sector and the province as a whole.

2. Research Methodology

CME conducted secondary research using Statistics Canada and Newfoundland Statistics data on demographics and employment.  In addition, CME performed an analysis on graduate statistics, Canadian jobs trends, and perceptions of skilled trades and technologies.  CME also administered a human resources survey to the manufacturing sector.

3. Research Questions/Framework

CME’s research sought to answer the following:

1. Will an industrial skills gap exist within the province?
2. How will industry growth, employee retirement, and potential new projects (i.e. Voisey’s, Lower Churchill, & White Rose) impact skill availability?
3. How will demographic changes affect industrial skill availability?
4. What is the current and future impact on firms of the potential skill gap?
5. How important are skills in investment/company attraction?
6. What has been the experience of past graduates?
7. Is the current industrial training capacity infrastructure adequate?
8. What role do perceptions (on the part of students, parents, gatekeepers) play in the potential skill gap?

The following represents CME’s analysis and conclusions regarding each of these questions:

3.1. Will an industrial skills gap exist within the province?

According to CME’s research, an expanding industrial skills gap is looming.  Population decline, increasing retirees, a decreasing number of high school graduates, and growing demand for industrial jobs have jointly prompted the development of a skills gap.

Industry Growth, Retirement Rates, Potential New Projects

According to Newfoundland Statistics, the industrial sector is growing at an estimated rate of 2% per year (740 people), and the retirement rate is approximately 4% per year (1,480 people), introducing a 6% demand for human resources annually.Thus, sector growth and retirements create a demand for 2,100 positions per year in the industrial sector. Allowing technological advances to aid productivity improvements, this amount is reduced by 1.5% of the sector, or by 530. This nets to 1,700 person- years required annually.